Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 8/4/2025
The Miami Marlins will host the Houston Astros at loanDepot Park on Monday night. Miami enters this series opener as one of the hottest teams in baseball and they will look to continue their winning ways here against an Astros team that has struggled of late. Before the action begins from South Florida, continue reading to get my Astros vs Marlins prediction.
Our Astros vs Marlins Pick
- Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins |
| Date & Time | August 4, 2025, 6:40 PM ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Jason Alexander (HOU) vs. Sandy Alcantara (MIA) |
| Stadium | loanDepot park, Miami, FL |
| Broadcast | FDSFL and SCHN |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Matchup: Sandy Alcantara is 6-9 this season and has a 6.36 ERA. He has shown improvement despite those numbers. Alcantara has allowed seven hits and zero earned runs over his last 12 innings of work. Jason Alexander is 1-1 and has a 7.36 ERA this year. He has struggled in his limited action on the mound. Alexander has surrendered 33 hits and 21 earned runs in his last 25.2 innings.
Team Momentum: The Marlins have won five consecutive games. They most recently earned a three-game sweep of the Yankees. The Astros were recently swept by the Boston Red Sox and they will look to bounce back in this contest against the Marlins.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Christian Walker | Hits | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
- This is the first meeting between these teams in 2025.
- This week’s three-game series is the only series scheduled between the Marlins and Astros this year.
- Miami enters this series at 27-29 at home for the season.
- Houston is 27-26 on the road in 2025.
Astros vs Marlins Model Projection
Projected Score: Marlins 6 – Astros 5
Win Probability: Marlins 51% | Astros 49%
Final Thoughts
The Miami Marlins are trending in the right direction across the board of late. They have won five games in a row and players like Sandy Alcantara are starting to put things together at the right time for them. I will back the Marlins to get a win in this game. That win would move them above the .500 mark for the season and help Miami with their postseason aspirations.
