Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Pick – 8/6/2025
The Houston Astros will wrap up their three-game series against the Miami Marlins on Wednesday at loanDepot Park. The Astros have won the first two games of this series by convincing margins and will look to secure a sweep with a win in this game. Before these teams take the field on Wednesday, keep reading to get my Astros vs Marlins prediction.
Our Astros vs Marlins Pick
- Pick: Marlins to win
- Confidence: 3 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
- Date & Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2025, 4:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs. Janson Junk (MIA)
- Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti returns to the Astros’ rotation after a four-month absence due to a fractured thumb. He is 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA in 9.2 innings of work this season. It would be a huge boost for the Astros if he can come back and pitch to his full potential right away. Janson Junk has been a consistent performer on the mound for the Marlins. He is 5-2 and has a 3.86 ERA. He will have his hands full with the lineup of the Astros today.
Key Players
- Jose Altuve (HOU): Altuve hit a home run for the Astros on Tuesday and he will continue to be a disruptive force in this game.
- Yainer Díaz (HOU): Diaz provides a strong presence behind the plate and in the middle of the order. He also went yard in Tuesday’s win.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA): The Marlins’ most reliable bat is Kyle Stowers. He is leading the team with a .293 average, 25 home runs, and 71 RBI.
Recent Team Streaks
The Astros have won two games in a row and will look for a third straight over the Marlins today. Miami had swept the Yankees over three straight games before this series but has squandered that momentum by dropping two straight to Houston.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Yainer Díaz | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Kyle Stowers | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston leads the regular season series with Miami 2-0. They have already clinched the season series going into the final meeting between these teams for the year.
- Both games in this series have seen 10 total runs scored.
- Houston is averaging 7.5 runs per game in this series so far.
Astros vs Marlins Model Projection
- Score Projection: Marlins 5 – Astros 4
- Win Probability: Marlins 55%, Astros 45%
Final Thoughts
I am not sure that we are going to see the Astros dominate this series the way they have over the first two games. Arrighetti is coming back from a long injury layoff and rust could be a major concern going into this game. I have been a believer in Janson Junk for most of this season and will continue to be here. I’ll take the Marlins to win this game on the moneyline as a slight underdog.
