Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 7/4/2025

The Houston Astros head west to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Friday, July 4, 2025. This interleague showdown featuring a pair of first-place teams should be an electrifying Fourth of July contest under the lights. Before first pitch from Los Angeles, continue reading to get my Astros vs Dodgers prediction for this game.

Our Astros vs Dodgers Pick

Pick: Astros moneyline (+152)

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers
• Date & Time: Friday, July 4 at 9:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros) vs Ben Casparius (Dodgers)
• Stadium: Dodger Stadium
• Broadcast: SportsNet LA & SCHN

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Lance McCullers Jr. enters tonight with a 1‑3 record with a 6.61 ERA. He had a difficult end to his month of June, giving up 12 earned runs in 8.1 innings over his last two starts. I’m not sure a game against the Dodgers is what he wants to see right now given how he has been pitching.
• Ben Casparius is a rookie with a 6-2 record and a 3.97 ERA. He’s shown good command, allowing just four homers this season. He hasn’t faced Houston yet and he will look to impress in this stern test for a rookie.

Bullpen usage

For the Astros, the goal in this game is simple, that being to get this game to the bullpens. Houston’s bullpen ranks third in the league in ERA at 3.31. That is the one area where they are clearly better than the Dodgers and theyw ill need to take advantage of that in order to win here.

Recent team streaks

• Los Angeles is riding a four-game winning streak.
• Houston dropped its most recent game, a 7‑6 loss to Colorado, but won three straight games before that.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Last 5 games: Dodgers 4‑1, Astros 3-2.
• This is the first game of a three-game season series between these teams.
• The Dodgers are 50-25 as favorites this season, Houston is 11-9 as an underdog.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers Model Projection

Score Projection: Astros 5 – Dodgers 4

Win Probability: Astros 46%, Dodgers 54%

Final Thoughts

I would be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned with the way McCullers has pitched lately for the Astros. But if he can just keep this game within striking distance before the bullpens get involved, the Astros should take advantage of the back end of the Dodgers pen. I expect the Astros to win this game at a plus price, in what could be a high-scoring interleague game.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.