Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction – 6/20/2025

On June 20, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will face off against the Houston Astros at Angel Stadium in their first matchup of the series. The Angels are currently sitting at 36-38, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Astros boast a strong 43-31 record, showcasing their status as a top contender.

Both teams are looking for a spark to ignite their offense. The Angels rank 24th in MLB in overall offense, with a dismal 27th in batting average, despite their impressive 4th ranking in home runs. In contrast, the Astros have found a sweet spot, claiming the 11th best offense and the 2nd best batting average in the league. Hunter Brown, projected to start for Houston, has been elite this season with an ERA of 1.88, and advanced-stat Power Rankings rank him as the 13th best starting pitcher. Meanwhile, his counterpart, Yusei Kikuchi, has struggled with a 3.05 ERA but has a lowly win-loss record of 2-6.

Kikuchi's peripherals suggest regression may be ahead, specifically indicated by his higher xFIP of 4.46. As he faces a high-strikeout Astros lineup, which is currently ranked 2nd in MLB strikeouts, the matchup heavily favors Houston’s Brown, especially given the Angels’ tendency to swing and miss.

Betting lines reflect this outlook, with the Angels positioned as significant underdogs at +155, implying a team total of only 3.46 runs. Conversely, the Astros’ implied team total sits at a robust 4.54 runs. Given the astronomical disparity in current form and projections, Houston seems poised to capitalize on this opportunity and extend their winning ways.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Hunter Brown has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 6.9% less often this year (40.1%) than he did last year (47%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jeremy Pena has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph dropping to 84.4-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros (19.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Yusei Kikuchi's fastball velocity has decreased 1.6 mph this year (94 mph) below where it was last year (95.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Bats such as Mike Trout with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.15 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+12.15 Units / 46% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 5.29, Los Angeles Angels 4.3

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Angels

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