Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 6/22/2025

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Houston Astros on June 22, 2025, at Angel Stadium, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this tightly contested matchup. The Angels, currently sitting at 37-39, are having an average season, while the Astros boast a stronger record of 44-33, positioning them as the better team overall.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled this season with a 5-6 record and a below-average ERA of 4.79. However, advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xERA stands at 3.89, hinting at potential improvement. Despite this, Hendricks' projections indicate he will struggle today, allowing an average of 6.1 hits and 1.2 walks, which could be detrimental against a potent Astros lineup.

Ryan Gusto, starting for Houston, holds a 4-3 record with an average ERA of 4.31. While he’s considered below average, he projects to allow fewer earned runs than Hendricks today. Gusto's high flyball rate could be a concern against the Angels, who rank 3rd in MLB with 110 home runs this season, providing them with a significant opportunity to capitalize on his mistakes.

Offensively, the Angels rank 24th in MLB, struggling to maintain consistency despite their power. In contrast, the Astros rank 10th, highlighted by their impressive 2nd-best batting average. The Angels’ moneyline sits at +105, suggesting a close contest, while the Astros are favored at -125. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. With both teams eager for a win, this matchup promises to be an exciting showdown.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ryan Gusto has been one of the unluckiest hurlers in MLB on balls in play this year with a .341 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Jeremy Pena has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 85.3-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Kyle Hendricks is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball bats like Mike Trout generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Gusto.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mike Trout, Logan O'Hoppe, Jo Adell, Christian Moore).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 games (+13.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+9.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 5.08, Los Angeles Angels 4.81

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Gusto - Astros
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels

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