Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 6/21/2025

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Houston Astros on June 21, 2025, in a critical matchup in the American League West. The Angels have struggled this season with a record of 36-39, while the Astros sit at a solid 44-32, marking a stark contrast in performance. In their previous game, the Angels fell to the Astros, highlighting their difficulties against a strong opponent.

Jose Soriano will take the mound for the Angels, bringing a respectable ERA of 3.54 this season. The right-hander is ranked as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his potential. However, Soriano's low strikeout rate of 19.0% could be a concern against the Astros' lineup, which strikes out less frequently than most teams. Additionally, Soriano's projections suggest he could struggle, allowing an average of 5.7 hits and 2.3 earned runs over six innings today.

On the other side, the Astros will counter with Brandon Walter, who has an impressive ERA of 1.53 in just three starts this year. Although ranked 57th among MLB starters, his 27.5% strikeout rate positions him well against an Angels lineup that ranks 2nd in strikeouts. Walter's ability to keep the ball on the ground makes him particularly effective against a powerful Angels offense that leads in home runs but struggles with consistency.

Interestingly, the projections indicate that the Angels’ offense, ranked 24th overall, might underperform despite their power, while the Astros, ranked 11th, have displayed more balanced offensive capabilities. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup, with betting markets favoring the Astros at -120. The Angels, however, could surprise given their home-field advantage and the potential for Soriano to rise to the occasion.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Brandon Walter is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #10 HR venue among all major league stadiums — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Christian Walker has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (97% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Houston Astros will score 3.99 runs on average in this game: the 4th-least of all teams today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano's four-seamer percentage has fallen by 6.3% from last year to this one (13.8% to 7.5%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jo Adell has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last year's 94.1-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Mike Trout, Logan O'Hoppe, Christian Moore).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 49 games (+8.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+10.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.25 Units / 18% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 3.99, Los Angeles Angels 4.73

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Walter - Astros
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

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