Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick & Preview – 4/10/2024

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 10, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 135, Royals 1.5 -160
• Money Line: Astros -120, Royals 100
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 52%
• Kansas City Royals - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 56.33%
• Kansas City Royals - 43.67%

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

In a matchup scheduled for April 10, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will take on the Houston Astros at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals will be the home team in this American League showdown.

The Royals are projected to start Seth Lugo, a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid season. Lugo has started two games this year and has a win/loss record of 1-0. His ERA stands at an impressive 0.71. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

Hunter Brown will take the mound for the Astros. He is also a right-handed pitcher but has had a rough start to the season. With an ERA of 6.43, Brown has struggled on the mound. However, his xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

With regards to the offense, the Royals rank as the 15th best in MLB this season. Their team batting average is average, ranking 19th in the league. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th overall. On the other hand, the Astros have a strong offense, ranking 8th best in MLB. They have a good team batting average, ranking 14th in the league. They also hit home runs well, ranking 9th in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Royals are slight underdogs with a moneyline of +100, implying a win probability of 48%. The Astros, with a moneyline of -120, have a win probability of 52%. This indicates that the game is expected to be a close one.

Overall, the Royals have been performing well, and Seth Lugo's strong pitching could give them an edge. However, the Astros have a potent offense and Hunter Brown may bounce back from his early struggles. With the home-field advantage, the Royals will look to maintain their impressive season record.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average pitcher, Seth Lugo has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 3.1 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Batters such as MJ Melendez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Salvador Perez (the Royals's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros 5.55 vs Kansas City Royals 4.58

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