Houston Astros VS Kansas City Royals Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristian Javier - Astros
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 130, Royals 1.5 -150
• Money Line: Astros -130, Royals 110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 54%
• Kansas City Royals - 46%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 53.33%
• Kansas City Royals - 46.67%

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

The Kansas City Royals will be the home team, boasting a record of 6-4 this season. The Royals are having a great season so far and will look to continue their winning ways. On the other hand, the Houston Astros will be the away team, struggling with a record of 4-7. The Astros are having a tough season and will aim to turn things around in this game.

The Royals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Ragans, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ragans is ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cristian Javier, who is considered a below-average pitcher.

Ragans has started two games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1. He has an excellent ERA of 1.46, indicating his strong performance on the field. However, his 2.90 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may perform worse going forward. Javier, on the other hand, has started two games with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 0.00. However, his 5.51 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could face challenges in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Royals rank as the 11th best in MLB this season, while the Astros rank 7th. However, the Royals rank poorly in team home runs, ranking 26th out of 30 teams. The Astros have a strong lineup and rank 9th in team home runs.

Considering the pitching matchup, Ragans' high-strikeout ability may be challenged by the low-strikeout Astros offense. This could give the Astros an advantage. On the other hand, Javier's high-flyball pitching style may pose a challenge to the Royals, who have struggled with power hitting this season.

In terms of betting odds, the Royals have an implied win probability of 47%, while the Astros have a 53% win probability. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average projection.

Overall, the matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the Houston Astros promises an exciting game. With the Royals having a strong season and the Astros looking to turn things around, it will be interesting to see how the teams perform on the field.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Cristian Javier is an extreme flyball pitcher (47.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue in the majors in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jose Abreu has been cold in recent games, notching a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) in the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Cole Ragans will be in a good position facing 7 batters in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Isbel has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Projected catcher Salvador Perez projects as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 49 away games (+19.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 54% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros 5.17 vs Kansas City Royals 4.54

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.