Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 8/18/2025
Division leaders will do battle on Monday night when the Detroit Tigers host the Houston Astros at Comerica Park. Both of these teams are in a great spot in the hunt for American League playoff spots. They will look to move even closer to October baseball with a win in this series opener. Here, I take a closer look at this American League matchup and give you my Astros vs Tigers prediction.
Our Astros vs Tigers Pick
- Pick: Detroit Tigers Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers
- Date & Time: Monday, August 18, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs Jack Flaherty (DET)
- Stadium: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti returns to the mound for Houston for this game. He is struggling with a 6.38 ERA in four starts. The Astros are 1‑3 in his starts and he’s given up 10 runs over 7.1 innings on the road. Detroit will go with Jack Flaherty on the mound here. He is 6‑12 with a 4.76 ERA over 24 starts. The Tigers have dropped nine of his last 11 outings. But his home ERA of 3.79 is stronger than his overall ERA. Both pitchers look vulnerable and we could have a high-scoring game in Detroit.
Division Leaders
The Tigers have a comfortable lead in the AL Central going into Monday. They lead the second-place Cleveland Guardians by 8.5 games. Houston is up by just one game over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West and they could be in a tie for first place by the end of Monday night.
Recent Team Streaks
The Tigers are riding a 4‑1 record over their last 5 games. They took three out of four games in their last series against the Minnesota Twins. The Astros are 2-3 in their last five games. They dropped two out of three against the Baltimore Orioles in their last series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Riley Greene | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Jack Flaherty | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
| Jose Altuve | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston holds a 2-1 lead in their season series against Detroit.
- All three games in the season series between these teams have seen 10+ total runs scored.
- Houston is 31-28 on the road this season
- Detroit is 39-24 at home in 2025.
- Houston has allowed 10+ runs in two of their last five games.
Astros vs Tigers Model Projection
Score Projection: Tigers 6 – Astros 4
Win Probability: Tigers 60 %, Astros 40 %
Final Thoughts
I think we will see both offenses make an impact in this game against inconsistent starting pitching. But my best bet for this game is for the Tigers to get a win at home. Arrighetti’s struggles on the mound are too much to ignore on the Astros side and Detroit should take advantage of that en route to a key victory.
