Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • Julian Aguiar - Reds

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 2, 2024, the stakes are clear. With the Reds sitting at 65-73 this season, they are struggling in a below-average year, while the Astros boast a solid 75-62 record and have been performing above average. This matchup is especially intriguing as it marks the first game in a series between these two teams.

In their last game, the Astros showcased their prowess, winning decisively against the Kansas City Royals, while the Reds beat their division rivals in the Milwaukee Brewers. The projections suggest that this contest could tilt in favor of the Astros, who feature Justin Verlander as their starter. Verlander, ranked as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB, carries an ERA of 4.16, which is above average. He is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings today, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs.

On the other hand, the Reds will counter with Julian Aguiar, who has struggled mightily this season. Aguiar is currently ranked 270th among starting pitchers and holds a troubling ERA of 6.43. His projections are not favorable either, as he is expected to pitch just 3.8 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out only 2.4 batters on average. This matchup could heavily favor the Astros, especially considering Aguiar's low strikeout rate against a Houston offense that ranks 11th in overall performance.

While the Reds maintain a respectable 1st ranking in stolen bases, their overall offensive output has been inconsistent, placing them 27th in batting average. Conversely, the Astros excel in hitting, ranking 2nd in batting average and 9th in home runs. With the Astros’ strong offensive capabilities and Verlander on the mound, the Reds face an uphill battle as they aim to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander has utilized his slider 5.9% less often this season (19.4%) than he did last year (25.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Victor Caratini has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Julian Aguiar has posted a staggering 6.43 ERA over his last 3 GS.

• A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Noelvi Marte has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 82.2-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+12.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 132 games (+17.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 away games (+12.40 Units / 103% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.8 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.87

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.