Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/5/2024

• Date: September 5, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Rhett Lowder - Reds

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Houston Astros on September 5, 2024, they enter the matchup after a surprising 12-5 victory over the Astros just one day prior. This game marks the third in the series, with the Reds currently sitting at 67-73, reflecting a below-average season. Meanwhile, the Astros boast a strong 75-64 record, positioning them well above the Reds in the standings.

Projected starters Rhett Lowder and Hunter Brown present an intriguing contrast. Lowder, ranked 173rd among MLB starting pitchers, has struggled this season with a 0-1 record despite an impressive ERA of 2.25. However, his xFIP of 4.32 suggests he may have been lucky, as he projects to pitch only 4.7 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs today. In contrast, Hunter Brown, ranked 41st, has a solid 11-7 record and a respectable ERA of 3.55. Brown pitched exceptionally well in his last outing, going 7 innings with no earned runs, which could bode well for the Astros.

Offensively, the Astros have the advantage, ranking 11th in the league while the Reds sit at 17th. The projections indicate that the Astros are expected to score 5.61 runs on average, significantly higher than the Reds' projected 4.74 runs. Despite the Reds' recent offensive success, their overall performance has been inconsistent, especially given their poor batting average, ranking 27th in the league.

With the Astros favored at -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, they look to bounce back after yesterday's loss. The Reds, however, are considered underdogs with a current moneyline of +130, reflecting a 42% implied win probability. Given the Astros' strong lineup and Brown's recent form, they appear poised to regain momentum in this series.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's higher usage rate of his fastball this season (51.8 vs. 46.1% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jon Singleton has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph dropping to 81.1-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 2nd-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

In his previous GS, Rhett Lowder turned in a great performance and conceded 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme flyball bats like Amed Rosario tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games at home (+13.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 118 games (+16.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+7.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.59 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.73

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