Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/19/2024

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros face off for the second game of their series on June 19, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox are struggling this season with a 20-54 record, while the Astros have been below average at 33-40. In yesterday's game, the White Sox secured a win, looking to continue their momentum.

On the mound for Chicago will be Garrett Crochet, a left-handed pitcher ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him elite. This season, Crochet holds a 3.16 ERA across 15 starts with a 6-5 record. Despite his solid ERA, his 2.43 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could perform even better. However, today's projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicate Crochet might face some challenges, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and 4.9 hits over 5.4 innings. His strikeout prowess (35.7 K%) will be tested against an Astros lineup that strikes out the least in MLB.

For the Astros, right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown will take the mound, ranked 51st among starting pitchers. He has a 5.00 ERA over 13 starts with a 3-5 record. His 3.58 xFIP indicates bad luck has inflated his ERA, and projections show he'll allow around 2.4 earned runs and 5.2 hits across 5.7 innings. Brown's high-groundball rate (51%) should play well against a White Sox offense that has struggled with power, ranking 25th in home runs.

Offensively, Houston has a significant edge. The Astros boast the 7th best offense in MLB, leading the league in batting average and ranked 4th in home runs. Trey Cabbage has been particularly hot, batting .400 with a 1.000 OPS over the past week. In contrast, Chicago's offense ranks 29th overall, with Andrew Benintendi being their best hitter over the last seven games, hitting .333 with a .899 OPS.

Given these matchups, the betting markets see this as a close game, with the Astros holding a slight edge at -115 and the White Sox at -105. With both teams projected to score around 3.7 runs, expect a tight contest where pitching and timely hitting could make the difference.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #2 HR venue in the league — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Mauricio Dubon has experienced some positive variance this year. His .322 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .286.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Houston Astros projected lineup grades out as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Houston Astros have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the last 7 days, Gavin Sheets's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+8.15 Units / 23% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.85 vs Chicago White Sox 4.04

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