Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/24/2024

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 175, Cubs 1.5 -205
• Money Line: Astros -110, Cubs -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 50%
• Chicago Cubs - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 47.66%
• Chicago Cubs - 52.34%

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Game Preview & Prediction

On April 24, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field. The Cubs, with a record of 14-9, are having a great season, while the Astros are struggling with a record of 7-17. This interleague matchup promises an exciting game between two teams with contrasting performances.

The Cubs will be the home team for this game, enjoying the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon, who has been performing well this season. Taillon has started one game, with a win-loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.80. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

On the other hand, the Astros will send right-handed pitcher Spencer Arrighetti to the mound. Arrighetti has struggled this season, starting two games with a win-loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 11.57. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

In their last game, the Cubs faced the Astros and emerged victorious with a score of 7-2. The Cubs' offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 8th best in MLB. Their best hitter, Michael Busch, has been contributing significantly, recording 15 RBIs and hitting 6 home runs.

Both teams have average implied win probabilities of 50%, according to the current moneyline odds. However, THE BAT X projects the Cubs to have a 53% win probability, making them the favorites in this close matchup.

Considering the Cubs' patient offense and Arrighetti's struggles with control, the Cubs may have an advantage in drawing walks. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Overall, this game promises an intriguing battle between the Cubs' strong season and the Astros' struggles. With Taillon on the mound and a potent offense, the Cubs have a slight edge in this matchup, according to the projections. However, anything can happen in baseball, making this game one to watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Houston Astros projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 20th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+6.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 away games (+16.70 Units / 32% ROI)

Astros vs Cubs Prediction: Astros 4.3 - Cubs 4.28

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