Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 8/3/2025
The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will face off for the final time in their three-game weekend series on Sunday. Boston has taken the first two games of this series at Fenway Park and will look to secure a sweep here. But they will need to defeat Framber Valdez in order to accomplish that. Before these American League teams start Sunday’s MLB action before noon, continue reading to get my Astros vs Red Sox prediction.
Our Astros vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Red Sox moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 3, 2025, 11:35 a.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Houston: Framber Valdez (11‑4, 2.62 ERA)
- Boston: Lucas Giolito (7‑2, 3.80 ERA)
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: Roku
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Framber Valdez dominates with elite command and has two recent double‑digit strikeout games. Houston is 11‑6 on the year in games he has started. The Astros staff ranks among the best in baseball and Valdez has been a big reason for their success. Boston’s Lucas Giolito has been solid this season with a 7-2 record and a 3.80 ERA. He will need to be near his very best to match Valdez in this game.
Key Players
- José Altuve remains a key run producer for the Astros.
- Jeremy Peña holds a team‑high .326 batting average and will be a key piece in the Astros lineup here.
- Trevor Story hit his 17th and 18th homers on Saturday and Boston will need him to contribute in this game as well.
- Alex Bregman is facing his former team and his play will be important for Boston.
- Carlos Correa returned to Houston recently and has added veteran leadership and plenty of power.
Recent team streaks
- Boston has won four games in a row coming into the final game of this three-game set.
- Houston has lost two games in a row coming into this matchup.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | RBI | Over 0.5 |
| Trevor Story | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Framber Valdez | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Red Sox are 2-0 against the Astros this season. Both of those wins have come in this weekend’s series.
- The over/under is 1-1 in the first two games of this series.
- Boston has outscored Houston 9-4 over the last two games.
- Boston has improved to 36-21 at home this season.
- Houston has dropped to 27-25 in their road games in 2025.
Astros vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Boston Red Sox 5 – Houston Astros 4
Win Probability: Red Sox 55%, Astros 45%
Final Thoughts
Framber Valdez is a fantastic pitcher for the Astros. But the Red Sox are playing better baseball from top to bottom and should be able to overcome a slight starting pitching disadvantage here. Boston has won just under two-thirds of their home games this season. I’ll take Boston in what is close to a pick ’em game to continue their winning ways at Fenway at the expense of a Houston team trying to hold onto the top spot in the AL West.
