Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 8/2/2025
The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will lock horns on Saturday afternoon at historic Fenway Park. These teams went to extra innings on Friday night and Boston got a dramatic walk-off win at home. The Astros will look to even the series on the road here. Before these American League foes go at it, continue reading to get my Astros vs Red Sox prediction.
Our Astros vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Over 9.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 2, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Colton Gordon vs Walker Buehler
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN, SCHN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Houston’s rookie Colton Gordon is 4‑3 and has a 4.74 ERA. He has struggled this season and has lost three of his last four starts. Walker Buehler of the Red Sox is 6‑6 and has a 5.72 ERA. He has looked more consistent lately by delivering three wins in his last four starts. But neither pitcher inspires a ton of confidence early in this game.
Key Players
- Alex Bregman will face his former team for the second time after facing the Astros on Friday.
- Trevor Story is enjoying a bounce-back season with 65 RBI for Boston.
- Jarren Duran has a team‑best .265 average and has been a hot hitter for the Red Sox.
- José Altuve leads the Astros with 57 RBI. Jeremy Peña is batting over .320 and is a catalyst atop the Astros’ order.
Recent team streaks
Boston has won three straight games after beating the Astros in 10 innings on Friday. The Astros had a two-game winning streak snapped when they lost that game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Story | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Walker Buehler | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 |
| Alex Bregman | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Boston leads the season series 1-0 after winning the opener between these teams in 2025 on Friday.
- The first game of this series stayed well under the total with only three runs scored in 10 innings.
- Both teams rank in the top four in MLB in bullpen ERA. That makes starting pitching even more important than usual.
Astros vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Red Sox 6 – Astros 5
Win Probability: Red Sox 53%, Astros 47%
Final Thoughts
I think we end up with a high-scoring game between the Astros and Red Sox come Saturday afternoon. Both starting pitchers in that game are not operating at a high level. Even though both bullpens are among the best in baseball this year, I think that we end up with a high-scoring game going into the final few innings. I am taking the over with the expectation that these teams combine to score 10 or more runs.
