Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 8/11/2024

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • James Paxton - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On August 11, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Houston Astros at Fenway Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox sitting at 61-54 and the Astros at 61-55. Despite their records, the projections suggest the Red Sox might be undervalued, as they rank 2nd in MLB in offensive performance, showcasing their depth and power.

In their last game, the Red Sox struggled, falling to the Astros, who have been riding high with some strong offensive performances lately. The Astros' Yordan Alvarez has been particularly hot, boasting a .409 batting average over the past week and hitting 4 home runs. The Red Sox, on the other hand, saw Romy Gonzalez emerge as their best hitter recently, recording 5 RBIs and 2 home runs in his last four games.

The pitching matchup features James Paxton for the Red Sox, who has a Win/Loss record of 9-3 and an average ERA of 4.42 this season. However, his advanced stats suggest he may be overperforming, as he ranks 239th among starting pitchers. Paxton projects to struggle against the Astros' disciplined lineup, which has the 3rd least strikeouts in MLB.

Hunter Brown will take the mound for Houston, boasting a solid 3.98 ERA and ranking 48th among pitchers. He projects to go 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, which could give the Astros an edge. With a high Game Total of 10.0 runs set for this matchup, bettors should watch for how both offenses perform against the opposing pitching, especially given the Red Sox's high implied team total of 4.71 runs. The Astros are favored to win, but the Red Sox's offensive strength could make for a competitive game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 86th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .300 mark is considerably lower than his .346 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

James Paxton has a mean strikeout projection of 3.9 bats in today's outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 63 games (+18.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 19 games at home (+10.60 Units / 56% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.83 vs Boston Red Sox 4.69

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