Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Houston Astros on August 25, 2024, they find themselves in a strong position with a record of 76-55, showcasing a remarkable season. In contrast, the Astros, at 69-60, are having an above-average year but are not quite at the same level as the Orioles. This matchup is part of a competitive series, with the Orioles looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

In their last outing, the Orioles got the win against the Astros, and will look to earn another behind Dean Kremer, who is projected to start on Sunday. Kremer has struggled this season, holding a 6-9 record with a 4.30 ERA, which is considered average. However, his Expected ERA (xERA) of 4.93 suggests he has been lucky this year and may face challenges moving forward. Kremer’s high walk rate (9.9 BB%) could be a concern, especially against a disciplined Astros lineup that ranks 4th in the league for the fewest walks.

On the other side, Yusei Kikuchi takes the mound for the Astros. With a similar 6-9 record and an ERA of 4.37, Kikuchi has been slightly more effective, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.28, suggesting he has been unlucky this season. His ability to limit walks (6.3 BB%) may work in his favor against an Orioles offense that also ranks 6th in the least walks drawn.

The Orioles boast the 5th best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in home runs, while the Astros rank 11th overall but are 2nd in batting average. With both offenses capable of explosive performances, the game total is set at an average 8.5 runs. According to the leading MLB projection system, the Orioles are seen as favorites with a projected win probability of 56%, indicating potential value for bettors looking to back the home team in this critical matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Yusei Kikuchi's slider percentage has decreased by 6.6% from last season to this one (26% to 19.4%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Yordan Alvarez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 97.3-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-best on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.3-mph drop off from last season's 94.1-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.3) suggests that Gunnar Henderson has been lucky this year with his 34.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 9.5% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles makes them the #3 team in baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 65 of their last 119 games (+19.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 122 games (+14.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+9.30 Units / 26% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.96 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.44

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