Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros face off on August 23, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a tightly contested matchup. The Orioles currently sit at 74-55, enjoying a solid season and holding a comfortable lead in the Wild Card race. Meanwhile, the Astros, with a record of 69-58, are fighting to stay relevant in the playoff picture as they navigate a competitive division.

In their last game, the Orioles fell to the Astros, adding pressure as they seek to even the series. The match-up features two contrasting starting pitchers: Cade Povich for Baltimore and Hunter Brown for Houston. Povich, ranked 170th among MLB starters, has struggled this season with a 1-6 record and a troubling 5.77 ERA. Despite a below-average strikeout rate, Povich projects to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs today, but he faces a daunting challenge against a potent Houston lineup.

On the other hand, Brown enters the game as the 38th ranked starter, boasting a respectable 3.82 ERA and an 11-7 record. He projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs. With the Astros' offense ranked 11th overall, they have the potential to capitalize on Povich's weaknesses, especially considering they are facing a low-strikeout pitcher.

The Orioles’ offense has been a force this season, ranking 2nd overall in MLB and leading the league with 157 home runs. They will need to leverage this power against Brown, who is known for inducing ground balls. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. With the Orioles' current moneyline at +100, they are viewed as underdogs despite their strong offensive capabilities. As the series continues, this game could be pivotal for both teams as they aim to solidify their playoff aspirations.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Considering that groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Hunter Brown (48.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

As it relates to his batting average, Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance this year. His .229 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .271.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Houston Astros with a 19.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.39 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.97 — a 1.58 K/9 disparity.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Baltimore Orioles bats as a unit grade out 3rd- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 9.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 121 games (+19.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 117 games (+13.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+13.45 Units / 25% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.81 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.21

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.