Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles host the Houston Astros on August 24, 2024, in a pivotal matchup between two teams with playoff aspirations. Currently, the Orioles sit at 75-55, firmly in contention with one of the best records in the American League. The Astros, on the other hand, hold a record of 69-59, positioning them just above average this season.

In their previous encounter on August 23, the Orioles triumphed over the Astros with a score of 7-5, showcasing their potent offense. The Orioles rank 1st in MLB for home runs, an impressive feat that underscores their power at the plate. As they look to continue their strong season, they will rely on Albert Suarez, who has had a solid year with a 3.18 ERA despite being ranked 229th among starting pitchers. However, his expected performance suggests he may not maintain his current level of luck, as indicated by a higher xFIP of 4.49.

On the mound for the Astros is Framber Valdez, ranked 13th in MLB, further establishing him as an elite pitcher. Valdez has enjoyed a strong season with a 3.20 ERA and a solid track record of 13 wins. His ability to induce ground balls (60% GB rate) could be crucial against an Orioles lineup that has showcased their power.

The projections indicate that the Astros are favored to win this matchup, with a projected team total of 4.94 runs compared to the Orioles' 4.02. Betting markets also reflect this sentiment, highlighting the close nature of the contest. The Orioles will need their offense to rise to the occasion yet again to keep their momentum going.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez's fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this year (93.4 mph) below where it was last year (94.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Alex Bregman has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 6.2% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 5th-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Albert Suarez has averaged 14.9 outs per outing this year, placing in the 22nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Anthony Santander has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph dropping to 81.8-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.5% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles ranks them as the #3 group of hitters in baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 130 games (+21.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 107 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Victor Caratini has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 away games (+11.00 Units / 92% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.94 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.02

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