Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 8/24/2025
The Houston Astros will wrap up their series against the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday afternoon at Camden Yards. The Astros have had the better of things in this four-game series so far and will look to complete an important sweep of Baltimore in this contest. Before the fun begins from Baltimore, you can continue reading to get my thoughts on this game and my Astros vs Orioles prediction.
Our Astros vs Orioles Pick
- Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 24, 2025, 1:35 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers (Orioles) vs Spencer Arrighetti (Astros)
- Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
- Broadcast: MASN and SCHN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Trevor Rogers brings a strong 6–2 record into today’s game. He has an impressive 1.41 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over roughly 76 innings of work. His control and ground-ball pitching make him a tough assignment for the lineup of the Astros. On the mound for Houston is Spencer Arrighetti. He enters at 1–4 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He has struggled consistently and that is a big reason the Orioles are favored in this contest.
Recent team streaks
- The Orioles have lost three straight games and are 2-3 over their last five games as a result.
- The Astros enter on a three-game winning streak and they are 3-2 over their last five games thanks to their dominance of the Orioles so far.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Trevor Rogers (BAL) | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston leads the season series between these teams by a margin of 4-2.
- Road teams have gone 5-1 in matchups between these teams this season.
- Houston enters this matchup with a 34-31 record on the road.
- Baltimore is 30-33 away from home on the season thus far.
Astros vs Orioles Model Projection
Score Projection: Orioles 6 – Astros 4
Win Probability: Orioles 56%, Astros 44%
Final Thoughts
The Astros are usually a better baseball team than the Orioles. But the pitching matchup in this game could swing things in Baltimore’s favor for one day. Trevor Rogers has been on fire for the O’s and Spencer Arrighetti has not been on fire for the Astros. That is putting it gently as I think that Arrighetti’s struggles will cost the Astros here. I’ll take the Orioles to win and salvage a game at the end of this four-game series.
