Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 8/21/2025
The Houston Astros will visit the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday night to begin a four-game series from Camden Yards. Houston is holding on for dear life at the top of the AL West standings and will look for an important win over a disappointing Orioles team here. Before the action begins in Baltimore, continue reading to get my Astros vs Orioles prediction for tonight’s game.
Our Astros vs Orioles Pick
- Pick: Houston Astros moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 21, 2025, 7:15 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jason Alexander (Astros) vs Brandon Young (Orioles)
- Stadium: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Jason Alexander sports a 3-1 record with a 4.74 ERA in 43.2 innings this season for the Astros. He has been solid so far despite his lack of experience and will look to help his team in a big spot here. Brandon Young is having a rough rookie campaign for the Orioles. He is 1-6 with a 5.68 ERA and has a 1.49 WHIP in his 52.1 innings of work. The Astros have the edge in starting pitching in this game, but we are dealing with small sample sizes on both sides.
Key Players
Bettors should focus on the bullpens as the key players in this game. This game could become a battle of the bullpens with two inexperienced starting pitchers on the hill. Houston ranks eighth in bullpen ERA this season and the Orioles are 25th in the league in that department. That could work in Houston’s favor if this game is close late.
Recent team streaks
- The Astros were swept by the Detroit Tigers in their last series. They have dropped four games in a row.
- Baltimore has won three straight games and four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Jason Alexander | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
| Gunnar Henderson | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Orioles hold a 2-1 lead in the season series between these teams in 2025.
- The over is 2-1 in games between the Orioles and Astros so far this year.
- This is the fourth game between these teams in the last seven days.
Astros vs Orioles Model Projection
- Score Projection: Astros 5 – Orioles 3
- Win Probability: Astros 54%, Orioles 46%
Final Thoughts
The Astros have the advantage in starting pitching and in the bullpens going into this contest. Anything can happen in baseball, but I think that the Astros should be favored in this matchup. I will take the Astros at even money to win this contest in an important game for them in the race for the AL West championship.
