Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 9/14/2025
Playoff urgency meets pride as Houston heads to Atlanta for the series finale on Sunday, September 14, 2025. First pitch is set for 1:35 pm ET at Truist Park, where Houston seeks a needed road win to keep pace in the AL West race while Atlanta looks to cap the set with a positive result at home. Here, I break down this interleague matchup and bring you my Astros vs Braves prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Our Astros vs Braves Pick
- Pick: Astros moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025, 1:35 pm ET
- Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs Joey Wentz
- Stadium: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Houston’s offense had sputtered lately, but they have broken out with 17 runs in two games against the Braves.
- Atlanta has been inconsistent, dropping a series to Chicago after getting thumped by Seattle, but still features dangerous power in the middle with Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna.
- Joey Wentz is the likely lefty for Atlanta. Houston has handled southpaws well in 2025.
- Houston’s staff has absorbed multiple injuries. Lance McCullers Jr. went back on the IL, and Luis Garcia was also placed on the IL, meaning more pressure on Valdez, Hunter Brown, and the bullpen.
Pitching matchup
Framber Valdez projects as the swing factor in this game. His 12-9 record and 3.42 ERA come with the usual heavy ground-ball profile that plays anywhere, especially in run-suppressing pockets when he’s ahead and can lean on the sinker-curve mix. Atlanta’s order can punish mistakes, but Valdez’s walk rate and ability to keep the ball in the park line up well against a Braves group that has struggled to string rallies together for long stretches.
Joey Wentz is slated for Atlanta with a 5.61 ERA across 85 innings, a WHIP of 1.51, and uneven command. Houston’s right-handed core of José Altuve and Jeremy Peña, plus the left-handed power of Yordan Alvarez, gives the Astros multiple looks that stress Wentz in different ways. If Wentz exits early, Atlanta’s bullpen depth has been tested, which can tilt late innings toward Houston.
Recent team streaks
- The Astros have won two in a row and three of their last four.
- Atlanta has lost four in a row.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| José Altuve | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Yordan Alvarez | Home Run | 1+ HR |
| Framber Valdez | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Joey Wentz | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston leads the season series 2-0.
- This is the last game scheduled between these teams for the season.
- Houston has outscored Atlanta 17-5 over the last two games.
Astros vs Braves Model Projection
Score Projection: Astros 5 – Braves 3
Win Probability: Astros 58%, Braves 42%
Final Thoughts
Houston’s edge against left-handed pitching plus a probable Valdez start drives this handicap. Atlanta can still do damage with Olson and Ozuna anchoring the middle, but Wentz’s volatility and the recent strain on the Braves’ bullpen leave openings for Houston throughout the afternoon. If Valdez is confirmed, the Astros moneyline holds value. The pick is Houston to take the getaway game and head home with needed momentum.
