Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 9/12/2025
The Houston Astros will open a three-game series at Truist Park against the Atlanta Braves on Friday. Playoff positioning is at stake for the Astros against a National League opponent that has struggled to keep pitchers healthy. Houston sits atop the AL West but they are in a tie for that spot after some recent struggles and will look to break out of their slump here. Before first pitch from Atlanta, continue reading to get my Astros vs Braves prediction for tonight.
Our Astros vs Braves Pick
- Pick: Braves moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves
- Date & Time: Friday, September 12, 2025, 7:15 pm ET
- Starting Pitchers: Undecided (Houston) vs Hurston Waldrep (Atlanta)
- Stadium: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- The Astros have fallen into a tie with the Seattle Mariners for the AL West lead. Seattle has been playing great baseball of late and the Astros have struggled somewhat lately. They will try to turn things around in this contest from Atlanta.
- The Braves have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this year. Whether you rate them as a bigger disappointment than the Baltimore Orioles is a matter of preference. But there is no denying that the Braves being 16 games under .500 is a surprise.
Pitching matchup
The Houston Astros have yet to decide on a starting pitcher for this matchup against the Braves. They could go with an opener out of the bullpen or they could opt to go with a pitcher with the intention of having them try to eat up as many innings as possible. Either way, we are not going to see one of the top arms for Houston on the bump tonight.
The Braves are going with Hurston Waldrep as their starting pitcher tonight. Waldrep is 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA in 40.2 innings of work this season. The Braves starter has shined in a small sample of games and he will look to make another statement that he is here to stay in this contest.
Recent team streaks
- The Astros have lost three of their last four games going into this matchup.
- Atlanta has dropped four of their last five outings.
Best Player Props
| Category | Player | Suggested Play |
|---|---|---|
| Home runs | Matt Olson | Over 0.5 HR |
| Strikeouts | Hurston Waldrep | Over 4.5 K |
| Total bases | Jeremy Peña | Under 1.5 TB |
| Total bases | Michael Harris II | Over 1.5 TB |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting between these teams in the 2025 MLB season.
- Atlanta is 18-24 in interleague games so far this year.
- The Astros are 29-16 in their interleague matchups in 2025.
Astros vs Braves Model Projection
Score Projection: Astros 5 – Braves 6
Win Probability: Astros 46%, Braves 54%
Final Thoughts
Houston is playing better baseball than Atlanta overall in 2025. But the recent struggles of the Astros make this a much more evenly matched game than the records for both teams would suggest. Waldrep should give the Braves an early pitching edge and I’ll take the Braves to get the win in this matchup from Atlanta.
