Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 7/3/2024

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros square off at Rogers Centre on July 3, 2024, in the third game of their series. The Blue Jays, with a 38-46 record, are having a below-average season, while the Astros, at 43-41, are performing at an average level. Despite their struggles, the Blue Jays are coming off a strong showing by George Springer, who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .550 with a 1.709 OPS, 3 home runs, and 10 RBIs in 6 games.

Yusei Kikuchi, an above-average left-handed pitcher ranked #89 in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, will start for Toronto. Kikuchi has posted a 4.18 ERA and a 4-8 record over 17 starts this season. However, his 3.28 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. On the other side, Ronel Blanco will take the mound for the Astros. Despite his excellent 2.49 ERA and 8-3 record, Blanco's 4.20 xFIP indicates he's been fortunate and may regress.

The Blue Jays' offense ranks 17th in MLB but struggles in key areas, sitting 25th in both home runs and stolen bases. Conversely, the Astros boast the 5th best offense, leading MLB in team batting average and ranking 5th in home runs.

One key matchup to watch is Blanco's high-walk rate (10.3%) against the Blue Jays' patient offense, which ranks 6th in walks. This contrast could give Toronto an edge, as they might exploit Blanco's control issues. On the flip side, Kikuchi's low-walk rate (5.6%) faces an Astros lineup that rarely walks (5th least in MLB), potentially playing to Houston's advantage.

The betting markets see this game as a close contest, with Toronto's moneyline at -115 (51% implied win probability) and Houston's at -105 (49% implied win probability). THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects a tight game, giving the Blue Jays a slight edge with a 52% win probability. Both teams are projected to score around 4.9 runs, suggesting a high-scoring affair. With the Blue Jays' patient approach at the plate and Kikuchi's potential for better performance, Toronto might just have the upper hand in this evenly matched game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1-mph decline from last year's 93.8-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.270) provides evidence that Mauricio Dubon has been very fortunate this year with his .312 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Houston's 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in Major League Baseball: #7 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Yusei Kikuchi has averaged 91.6 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Daulton Varsho has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+14.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.07 vs Toronto Blue Jays 5.28

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