Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet – 7/1/2024

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 1, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Houston Astros on July 1, 2024, both teams find themselves in different stages of the season. The Blue Jays, sitting at 38-45, are having a below-average season, while the Astros, with a 42-41 record, are hovering around average. This is the first game of the series, and it's set to be played at Rogers Centre, an American League matchup that could provide some intriguing betting opportunities.

The Blue Jays are coming off a tough loss to the Yankees, where they fell 8-1, despite being slight favorites with a -110 Moneyline. Meanwhile, the Astros are riding high after a 10-5 victory over the Mets, a game in which they were slight underdogs with a +105 Moneyline. This contrast in recent performances adds an interesting layer to the upcoming game.

Toronto will send Yariel Rodriguez to the mound. Rodriguez, a right-hander, has struggled this season with a 5.60 ERA and a 0-2 record over six starts. His 4.91 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could perform better moving forward. However, his low strikeout rate (20.0%) and high walk rate (14.1%) are concerning, especially against an Astros offense that ranks 1st in batting average and 5th overall. Houston’s lineup, led by Jose Altuve (.304 batting average, .822 OPS), could exploit Rodriguez's weaknesses.

On the other side, Houston will counter with Hunter Brown, also a right-hander. Brown has been solid this season, posting a 4.37 ERA and a 5-5 record over 15 starts. His 3.54 xFIP indicates he’s been a bit unlucky as well, and his recent performance—6 innings of shutout ball with 7 strikeouts in his last start—shows he’s capable of dominance. The Blue Jays’ offense, which ranks 16th overall but struggles with power (27th in home runs), might find it tough to generate runs against Brown.

The Blue Jays' bullpen has been a weak spot, ranking 24th in advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Astros’ bullpen is more reliable, sitting at 15th. This disparity could play a crucial role in the later innings.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Blue Jays a 48% win probability, which is 5% higher than the betting market suggests. With the Blue Jays being underdogs at +125, there may be value in betting on them, especially if Rodriguez can outperform his season stats and the bullpen holds up.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown has utilized his slider 19% less often this year (6.1%) than he did last season (25.1%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Toronto's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Alex Bregman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Yordan Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Over his previous 3 starts, Yariel Rodriguez has seen a significant fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2449 rpm over the entire season to 2354 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Danny Jansen is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays projected offense profiles as the 3rd-best of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 62% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+14.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Danny Jansen has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.84 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.41

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