Houston Astros at Texas Rangers Pick For 8/6/2024

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros clash again on August 6, 2024, at Globe Life Field, the stakes are high in this American League West matchup. The Rangers are currently sitting at 54-59, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Astros hold a slightly better record of 57-55, indicating an average campaign. In their previous encounter yesterday, the Rangers edged out the Astros with a close 4-3 victory, which could serve as a confidence booster for the home team.

Pitching will be a focal point in this matchup, with the Rangers set to start Tyler Mahle, who ranks as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s above average. However, Mahle has been inconsistent, projecting to allow 2.6 earned runs and 5.2 hits today, which raises concerns. On the other side, the Astros will counter with Framber Valdez, an elite pitcher ranked 14th overall. Valdez boasts a solid 10-5 record and a respectable 3.56 ERA, having recently pitched six innings with four earned runs and ten strikeouts in his last start.

The Rangers' offense has been lackluster, ranking 23rd overall and showing weaknesses in various areas. In contrast, the Astros boast a much stronger lineup, ranking 11th in MLB and 2nd in team batting average. Despite these disparities, projections suggest a close game, with the Rangers having an implied team total of 3.81 runs and the Astros at 4.19 runs. Interestingly, the projections indicate that the Rangers may have more value than the betting markets suggest, projecting them to score an average of 4.05 runs today.

With both bullpens ranked among the top five in MLB, this game promises to be a tightly contested battle. Fans can expect another exciting chapter in this rivalry as both teams look to assert their dominance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (94.4 mph) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (93.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Victor Caratini is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Texas (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Compared to average, Tyler Mahle has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -11.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Josh Jung is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 away games (+26.50 Units / 189% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.26 vs Texas Rangers 3.94

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