Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Pick For 7/21/2024

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

An American League West showdown is set for July 21, 2024, as the Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park. This matchup features two teams with identical implied win probabilities of 50%, highlighting the close competition expected on the field. Both teams have an above-average season, with Seattle holding a 52-47 record and Houston at 51-46. The Mariners' current form gives them a slight edge, having won the last two games of the series.

Bryan Woo (3-1, 2.45 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle, aiming to continue his solid season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Woo ranks as the 67th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, signaling his above-average performance. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests some regression is possible. Woo will likely face challenges against an Astros offense that ranks 1st in team batting average and 3rd in fewest strikeouts, potentially diminishing his low-strikeout advantage (17.1 K%).

On the other side, Ronel Blanco (9-4, 2.56 ERA) will start for Houston. Though his surface numbers look impressive, Blanco's 4.21 xFIP indicates that he, too, has been fortunate this season. The projections have him allowing 2.6 earned runs over 5.3 innings, with a terrible projection in hits allowed (4.6) and walks (2.2). Seattle's offense, which ranks 10th in home runs this season, will look to capitalize on Blanco’s vulnerabilities.

Despite Seattle's offensive struggles—ranking 28th overall and dead last in team batting average—the Mariners could exploit Blanco's weaknesses. Meanwhile, Houston's potent offense, ranked 10th overall and 9th in home runs, faces a Mariners bullpen criticized by Power Rankings as the 26th best in MLB, significantly worse than their year-to-date performance. Conversely, the Astros' bullpen ranks 5th, providing them a reliable safety net in close games.

Both teams are evenly matched in terms of current betting odds, but with Seattle's slight edge in form and pitching matchups, they might have just enough to secure a win in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (63.2% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

In the last 14 days, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

In his last game started, Bryan Woo wasn't on when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Cal Raleigh has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 105.6-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+9.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 43 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Dylan Moore has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 3.85 vs Seattle Mariners 4.24

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