Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants Pick For 6/12/2024

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants host the Houston Astros on June 12, 2024, at Oracle Park, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions despite their close records. The Giants, with a 33-35 record, are having an average season, while the Astros, at 31-37, are underperforming based on preseason expectations.

San Francisco's Logan Webb, ranked the 12th best starting pitcher by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, will take the mound. Webb has been stellar this season with a 2.92 ERA, although his 4.61 xERA suggests some luck has been involved. Webb has started 14 games this year, boasting a 5-5 record, and is projected to pitch 6.8 innings, allowing just 2.2 earned runs on average. His groundball-heavy approach (57 GB%) could neutralize Houston's powerful offense, which ranks 4th in home runs.

Houston counters with Framber Valdez, the 32nd best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, who brings a 5-3 record and a 3.53 ERA into this matchup. Valdez has started 10 games this season and is projected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average. Despite his solid performance, Valdez's projections indicate struggles with control and hits, allowing 2.1 walks and 5.8 hits on average.

Offensively, the Astros have the edge, ranking 6th overall in MLB, bolstered by their 2nd best team batting average and 4th best in home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been their standout hitter over the last week, posting a .300 batting average and 1.117 OPS with 5 RBIs and 1 home run in 5 games. The Giants' offense is more middle-of-the-pack, ranking 14th overall, with Heliot Ramos being a recent bright spot, hitting .450 with a 1.342 OPS over the last week.

The Giants possess the league's top-ranked bullpen, which could be a key factor in a tight game, contrasting with the Astros' 12th ranked bullpen. With the betting markets setting both teams' moneylines at -110, indicating a 50% implied win probability, the Giants' elite bullpen and Webb's ability to induce groundballs might give them a slight edge in this closely contested interleague matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez should be in good shape matching up with 8 batters in the projected offense of the opposite hand in this outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Extreme groundball batters like Wilmer Flores usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 away games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.35 Units / 18% ROI)

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 3.36 vs San Francisco Giants 3.91

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