Houston Astros at San Diego Padres Best Bet – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face off against the Houston Astros on September 17, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the playoff race. The Padres currently hold a strong record of 85-65, while the Astros sit at 81-68. This matchup is particularly significant as it is the second game in a series that could have playoff implications.

In their last game, the Padres showcased their offensive prowess, with Fernando Tatis Jr. leading the charge by recording 8 hits and hitting 4 home runs over the past week. Tatis has been a key contributor, boasting a remarkable .400 batting average and a 1.429 OPS during this stretch. Meanwhile, the Astros' Jason Heyward has also been productive, with a .455 batting average and a 1.500 OPS over his last seven games, but he’s not matching Tatis' recent impact.

On the mound, Michael King is projected to start for the Padres. With a Power Rankings position of 20th among MLB starters, he has a solid 3.06 ERA this season, indicating great performance. However, his 3.61 SIERA suggests he may have been a bit lucky, which could be a concern moving forward. King is a high-strikeout pitcher with a 28.1 K% but faces an Astros offense that has the 4th fewest strikeouts in MLB, potentially neutralizing his biggest strength.

Hunter Brown will take the mound for Houston, ranking 34th among MLB starters with a 3.59 ERA. Although he has had a decent year, both teams' offenses rank highly, with the Padres at 7th and the Astros at 9th, suggesting a competitive battle at Petco Park. The game total is set low at 7.0 runs, reflecting the expectation of a tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (52.6 compared to 46.1% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King's fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (92.2 mph) below where it was last season (93.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jackson Merrill has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.4-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 75 games (+16.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 149 games (+17.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+25.00 Units / 167% ROI)

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.16 vs San Diego Padres 4.24

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