Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Pick For 7/23/2024

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Bloss - Astros
  • Osvaldo Bido - Athletics

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros visit the Oakland Athletics at Oakland Coliseum on July 23, 2024, fans can expect an intriguing matchup between two American League West teams. The Astros, boasting a 52-48 record, are having an above average season and are 3rd in their division, while the Athletics are struggling with a 40-62 record, sitting in last place in the division. This is the second game of the series, and the Athletics will look to capitalize on their home field advantage after yesterday’s loss.

The Athletics' offense has had its highs and lows this season. Ranking 20th overall, their consistency has been an issue, highlighted by their 27th place in team batting average. However, their power is undeniable, ranking 4th in team home runs. Their recent standout, Max Schuemann, has been on fire, hitting .545 with a 1.643 OPS over the last week. On the flip side, the Athletics' pitching has been less impressive, with Osvaldo Bido, their projected starter, ranking 232nd among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his solid 3.44 ERA, his peripherals like a 5.73 xFIP suggest regression could be on the horizon.

The Astros have shown more balance. Their offense ranks 9th in the league, led by an impressive #1 team batting average and 10th in team home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been exceptional recently, posting a .429 batting average and 1.429 OPS over the last week. On the mound, the Astros will turn to Jake Bloss, who, despite his 4.70 ERA, has been unlucky as suggested by his 4.07 xERA. His matchup against the Athletics’ high-strikeout offense could be advantageous.

The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, give the Astros a slight edge with a 52% win probability and an expected 4.79 runs scored. Betting markets align closely, with the Astros' moneyline at -135, implying a 55% win probability. Oakland’s implied win probability sits at 45%, but their recent offensive surge led by Schuemann provides a glimmer of hope.

With both teams featuring starters that have struggled with control and strikeouts, the game's total is set at a high 9.0 runs. All in all, it’s expected to be a competitive game where the Astros have a slight upper hand but will need to contain Oakland's power hitters to secure the win.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Compared to the average pitcher, John Bloss has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -13.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme flyball batters like Jeremy Pena are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Osvaldo Bido.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Houston Astros have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jon Singleton, Trey Cabbage, Joey Loperfido).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Given the 1.2 discrepancy between Osvaldo Bido's 5.22 ERA and his 4.01 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season and should see positive regression the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Lawrence Butler is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 9.5% Barrel% of the Oakland Athletics ranks them as the #5 club in MLB this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+7.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 65 games (+14.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 42% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.78 vs Oakland Athletics 4.44

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