Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 7/24/2024

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros gear up for their matchup on July 24, 2024, it's clear that these two AL West rivals are heading in different directions this season. With records of 40-62 and 52-48, respectively, the Athletics are struggling while the Astros are performing above average. This game, the third in a series at Oakland Coliseum, offers a stark contrast between the two clubs.

JP Sears, a lefty who ranks as the 179th best starting pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, will take the mound for Oakland. This season, Sears has a 7-7 record with a 4.49 ERA, suggesting he’s been quite average. However, his peripheral stats like the 3.0 earned runs and 3.7 strikeouts he’s projected to allow today aren't promising, especially against a potent Astros offense. The Athletics' offense, ranked 20th overall and 27th in team batting average, will need a miracle to bail him out.

Houston counters with Hunter Brown, the 46th best starting pitcher, according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. Brown sports an 8-6 record and a 4.14 ERA this season, but his 3.48 xERA indicates he’s been a bit unlucky. The projections suggest a solid outing with 2.5 earned runs and 5.9 strikeouts. Given that the Astros' offense ranks 10th overall and 1st in team batting average, Brown should have plenty of run support.

Over the last week, Houston’s Yordan Alvarez has been red-hot, posting a .429 batting average and a 1.429 OPS. Meanwhile, Oakland’s Max Schuemann has also been impressive, boasting a .545 average and a 1.643 OPS over the same period. Yet, these individual performances may not be enough to tip the scales for Oakland.

Oddsmakers currently favor Houston with a -160 moneyline, implying a 59% win probability, whereas Oakland sits at +135, implying a 41% chance. Given the dismal state of the Athletics' season and JP Sears' shaky projections against a low-strikeout Astros lineup, Houston seems the safer bet. The game total of 8.5 runs suggests a reasonably balanced affair, but the Astros' combination of superior pitching and batting should make the difference.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's 95.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 86th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jose Altuve has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 6.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Projected catcher Yainer Diaz grades out as a horrible pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue in MLB today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Brent Rooker has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97-mph average to last season's 94.9-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Oakland Athletics hitters as a group rank among the best in baseball this year (7th-) when assessing their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+8.75 Units / 64% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 34 games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.04 vs Oakland Athletics 4.16

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.