Houston Astros at New York Mets Prediction For 6/30/2024

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shawn Dubin - Astros
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Betting Preview

With the New York Mets and Houston Astros both sitting at .500 (40-40 and 41-41, respectively), this Interleague matchup at Citi Field on June 30, 2024, has the potential to nudge one team above the mediocrity line. The Mets, who are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 59%, will look to capitalize on home field advantage and their solid offensive rankings. The Mets are currently 6th in offense, 8th in batting average, and 4th in home runs. They will also hope to build upon their recent form, including standout performances from Jose Iglesias, who has been scorching hot over the last week with a .600 batting average and a 1.600 OPS over 5 games.

Luis Severino, the Mets' projected starter, brings a mix of promise and concern. While Severino's 3.29 ERA is impressive, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests that his 4.14 xFIP hints at some luck along the way. Despite this, Severino's 5-2 record over 15 starts indicates a knack for winning, although his 19.0% strikeout rate is less than ideal against an Astros lineup that strikes out the least in MLB. With the Mets boasting a better-than-average offense, Severino's ability to limit the high-contact Astros will be crucial.

On the flip side, the Astros will counter with Shawn Dubin, whose 5.64 ERA and 1-1 record reflect a rough season. However, Dubin's 3.76 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and could be due for better results. He’s a groundball pitcher (52% GB rate), which might help neutralize the Mets' power-heavy lineup. The Astros' offense also brings firepower, ranking 5th overall and leading MLB in batting average. Jake Meyers has been a standout over the past week, hitting .429 with a 1.341 OPS, giving Houston hope for offensive production.

Both bullpens are considered average, with the Mets ranked 16th and the Astros 14th in Power Rankings. This game hinges on which starting pitcher can outperform expectations, and whether the Mets' powerful offense or the Astros' high-contact lineup will seize the day. Given the high implied team total of 4.68 runs for the Mets, they are slightly favored to edge past the Astros in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Among all SPs, Shawn Dubin's fastball velocity of 94.4 mph grades out in the 78th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jose Altuve has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .354 rate is a fair amount higher than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Houston Astros bats jointly have been among the best in Major League Baseball this year (7th-) when assessing their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 5.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Mark Vientos has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 15.1% seasonal rate to 29.2% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 76 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+16.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• DJ Stewart has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.5 vs New York Mets 4.79

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