Houston Astros at New York Mets Best Bet – 6/29/2024

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets and Houston Astros gear up for their second game in the series on June 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of average seasons. The Mets sit at 40-39, while the Astros are just behind at 40-41. This interleague matchup at Citi Field is crucial for both teams looking to gain momentum. Yesterday, the Mets took the first game of the series with a convincing 7-2 victory, demonstrating their offensive capabilities.

On the mound, Tylor Megill will start for the Mets. Megill has had a tough season, holding a 2-4 record with a 4.81 ERA. However, his 3.83 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see better days ahead. His last outing was rough, allowing six earned runs over just three innings. Megill's high strikeout rate (27.8%) will be tested against the Astros, who strike out the least in MLB. Additionally, his high walk rate (9.8%) may not be fully exploited by Houston's impatient offense, which ranks 4th least in walks.

Framber Valdez will take the mound for the Astros. Valdez, the 30th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been solid this season with a 6-5 record and a 3.68 ERA. In his last start, he pitched a strong seven innings, allowing only one earned run. Valdez's groundball tendencies (63% GB rate) may neutralize the Mets' powerful offense, which ranks 4th in team home runs this season.

Offensively, the Mets have been led by Francisco Lindor, who has been their standout player this season with 13 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Francisco Alvarez has been on fire recently, batting .615 with a 2.085 OPS over the last week. The Astros counter with Jose Altuve, who boasts a .304 batting average and a .824 OPS this season, while Chas McCormick has been their hottest hitter recently, hitting .333 with a 1.218 OPS over the last week.

Both teams have average bullpens, with the Mets ranked 14th and the Astros 17th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. The game is projected to be a close one, with the betting markets giving the Astros a slight edge at -120, implying a 52% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives both teams a 50% win probability, suggesting this matchup could go either way.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Compared to average, Framber Valdez has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 4.8 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Chas McCormick has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.3-mph to 95.6-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Houston Astros batters collectively have been among the best in baseball this year (7th-) as it relates to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jose Iglesias usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+9.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.15 Units / 39% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+11.90 Units / 198% ROI)

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.3 vs New York Mets 4.05

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