Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Caden Dana - Angels

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Houston Astros on September 15, 2024, the stakes are high for the Angels, who are struggling with a 60-87 record this season. The Astros, on the other hand, are sitting comfortably above .500 at 79-68. Despite their lackluster performance this year, the Angels can take solace in being at home in Angel Stadium for this American League West matchup.

In their last game, the Angels were unable to secure a victory, continuing their disappointing season, while the Astros remain in contention following a solid win. The Angels will send out Caden Dana, who has endured a tough year, posting an ERA of 9.00 and ranking as the 243rd best starting pitcher, making him one of the weakest links in the league. Dana's performance has been somewhat unlucky according to his xFIP of 6.27, but he still projects to struggle against a strong Astros lineup.

Ronel Blanco will take the mound for the Astros, boasting an impressive 2.99 ERA and a solid 10-6 record. Although he has been labeled a below-average pitcher by Power Rankings, his ability to limit runs makes him a tough opponent for the Angels' struggling offense, which ranks 27th in the league.

Interestingly, projections suggest that the Angels could outperform expectations, with an implied team total of 3.75 runs but a projected scoring average of 4.50 runs. This could present an opportunity for bettors looking for value in this matchup. While the Astros are favored, the Angels have the potential to surprise, especially with Nolan Schanuel shining as their best hitter recently.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ronel Blanco must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 61.9% of the time, checking in at the 86th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen projects as the 7th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

In his previous outing, Caden Dana gave up a monstrous 5 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Niko Kavadas has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 95.4-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Zach Neto pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Ben Gamel has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+4.30 Units / 47% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.57 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.5

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