Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 6/7/2024

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 7, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In a matchup between American League West rivals, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Houston Astros at Angel Stadium on June 7, 2024. The Angels, currently having a terrible season with a record of 24-38, will look to turn things around against the Astros, who are also struggling with a record of 28-35.

The Angels will send right-handed pitcher Griffin Canning to the mound, while the Astros will counter with left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez. Canning, ranked as the #200 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a mediocre season with a Win/Loss record of 2-5 and an ERA of 4.69. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward.

On the other hand, Valdez, ranked as the #30 best starting pitcher in MLB, has been solid this season with a Win/Loss record of 4-3 and an ERA of 3.95. His peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Valdez's groundball pitching style could pose a challenge for the powerful Angels offense, which ranks third in MLB in team home runs.

The Angels offense, ranked 19th best in MLB, has shown some promise with their batting average, ranking 12th in the league. However, their stolen base ranking of 27th indicates a weakness in that area. On the other hand, the Astros offense has been more consistent, ranking 6th best in MLB. They have been particularly strong in team batting average and home runs, ranking 14th and 9th, respectively.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Angels rank 28th while the Astros rank 16th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could be a factor to consider in the later innings of the game.

With an implied win probability of 38%, the Angels enter the game as underdogs with a current moneyline of +155. The Astros, with an implied win probability of 62%, are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -175. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in the game.

Overall, the Astros have the advantage in terms of starting pitching and offensive consistency. However, the Angels have the potential to capitalize on their power hitting. It will be interesting to see how these factors play out in the first game of the series between these two teams.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez's fastball velocity has decreased 1.6 mph this year (93.1 mph) below where it was last season (94.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jose Abreu has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .219 mark is quite a bit lower than his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Houston's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in the majors: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Griffin Canning will ring up an average of 4.1 strikeouts in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Since the start of last season, Cole Tucker's 0% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 0th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's game, Kevin Pillar is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.3% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+11.20 Units / 25% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.23 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.85

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