Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Best Bet – 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Houston Astros on September 14, 2024, the stakes remain high for the Astros, who are in contention for a Wild Card spot. The Angels, on the other hand, are having a rough season, currently sitting at 60-86 and unable to compete for their division.

In their last matchup, the Astros came out on top, showcasing their offensive strength. They rank 9th in MLB, bolstered by a potent batting average that sits at 3rd overall. In contrast, the Angels rank 26th in overall offense and 28th in team batting average, making it a difficult season for their hitters. Niko Kavadas has emerged as the Angels' best hitter over the last week, boasting a 0.538 batting average and a 1.471 OPS, but the overall output has been lackluster.

On the mound, Tyler Anderson is projected to start for the Angels, bringing a Win/Loss record of 10-12 and an impressive ERA of 3.50. However, his 4.82 xFIP indicates that he may have benefitted more from luck than skill this season. Facing him will be Justin Verlander, who has struggled with a 5.30 ERA but has a better-than-expected 4.10 xERA, suggesting he might be due for a turnaround. The projections indicate that Verlander could have the upper hand, especially against a low-strikeout Angels lineup.

The Angels are significant underdogs with a low implied team total of 3.73 runs, while the Astros are favored with a much higher total of 4.77 runs. With the Astros' ability to capitalize on Anderson's weaknesses, they seem well-positioned to secure another victory in this series.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Over his previous 3 games started, Justin Verlander has suffered a big fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2397 rpm over the whole season to 2347 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.328) provides evidence that Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance this year with his .286 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Houston Astros bats collectively place 26th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Compared to the average hurler, Tyler Anderson has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 4.3 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Mickey Moniak is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Zach Neto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Niko Kavadas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 38% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.61 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.33

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