Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the regular season winds down, the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros face off in the second game of their series on September 28, 2024. The Guardians, with a strong 92-68 record, have already secured a playoff spot and are looking to maintain their momentum. Meanwhile, the Astros, at 87-73, are fighting to solidify their postseason position. In the first game of the series, the Astros came out on top with a 5-2 victory, highlighting their offensive prowess.

Cleveland will turn to Ben Lively on the mound, who has had a solid season with a 13-9 record and a 3.80 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.50 suggests he's been a bit fortunate, and he may face challenges against a potent Astros lineup that ranks 9th in offense overall and 3rd in team batting average. The Guardians' offense, while strong in stolen bases (5th), has been average overall, ranking 16th in offense. They'll rely heavily on Jose Ramirez, who has been on a tear recently, boasting a .368 batting average and a 1.347 OPS over the last week.

For the Astros, Justin Verlander takes the hill. Despite a tough season with a 5.55 ERA, Verlander has been unlucky according to his 4.03 xERA, suggesting potential improvement. Houston's offense, led by Yordan Alvarez, who has a .308 batting average and a .959 OPS, will look to capitalize on Lively's low strikeout rate against their disciplined hitters.

The Guardians bullpen, ranked 6th, will be a factor in containing the Astros if Lively struggles. However, the Astros bullpen isn't far behind at 7th, setting the stage for a close contest. Betting markets reflect this, with the Guardians slightly favored at -115, but projections suggest the Astros have a 53% chance of clinching another win, making this matchup one to watch.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Out of all SPs, Justin Verlander's fastball spin rate of 2396 rpm grades out in the 76th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Houston Astros offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ben Lively is projected to throw 82 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 15th-least on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Brayan Rocchio's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 84.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 80.9-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+15.70 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 57 away games (+16.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.20 Units / 82% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.64 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.12

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