Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox Best Bet – 6/20/2024

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: June 20, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros prepare to face off on June 20, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field, both teams are struggling through challenging seasons. The White Sox, with a dismal 20-55 record, are having a notably terrible season, while the Astros' 34-40 record is below average by their standards.

This American League matchup features two right-handed pitchers, Chris Flexen for the White Sox and Spencer Arrighetti for the Astros. Flexen, who has started 13 games this year, holds a poor 2-6 record with a 5.35 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a 4.68 xERA indicating he might perform better going forward. On the other side, Arrighetti has a rough 6.37 ERA over 12 starts, but his 4.29 xFIP suggests he's also been unlucky and could see some improvement.

Offensively, the White Sox have been abysmal, ranking last in MLB in both overall offense and team batting average. They are 25th in home runs and middle-of-the-pack in stolen bases. The Astros, however, boast a strong lineup, ranking 8th overall, 1st in batting average, and 4th in home runs. This stark contrast in offensive firepower could be pivotal in the game.

From a betting perspective, the Astros are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -175, translating to an implied win probability of 62%. The White Sox, conversely, are significant underdogs at +155, with an implied win probability of 38%. Given the Astros' superior offense and the White Sox's struggles, the odds seem justified.

Recent performances have seen Andrew Benintendi shine for the White Sox, hitting .364 with a 1.189 OPS over the past week. For the Astros, Jose Altuve has been hot, batting .333 with a 1.011 OPS in his last five games.

The advanced-stat Power Rankings also favor the Astros, with their bullpen ranked 18th compared to the White Sox's 28th. This further underscores Houston's advantage in this matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today’s version of the Astros projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .312 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .325 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen has averaged 14.1 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 10th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Andrew Benintendi will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+13.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+10.60 Units / 13% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.19 vs Chicago White Sox 4.43

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