Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs Pick & Prediction – 4/25/2024

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Overview

• Date: April 25, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 130, Cubs 1.5 -150
• Money Line: Astros -130, Cubs 110
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 54%
• Chicago Cubs - 46%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 57.5%
• Chicago Cubs - 42.5%

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Game Preview & Prediction

The Chicago Cubs are set to take on the Houston Astros in an Interleague matchup at Wrigley Field on April 25, 2024. The Cubs, with a season record of 15-9, are having a great season, while the Astros, with a record of 7-18, are struggling.

The projected starting pitcher for the Cubs is Javier Assad, a right-handed pitcher. He has started four games this year and has a win/loss record of 2-0 with an excellent ERA of 2.11. However, his 3.94 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Astros will counter with their ace, Justin Verlander, also a right-handed pitcher. Verlander has started one game this year, with a record of 1-0 and an excellent ERA of 3.00. His 3.66 xFIP indicates that he has also been lucky and might see some regression in his performance going forward.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Javier Assad is ranked #172 out of approximately 350 pitchers, suggesting that he is not performing at an elite level. In contrast, Justin Verlander is ranked #33, indicating that he is one of the top starting pitchers in MLB.

The Cubs have a strong offense, ranking #6 in MLB and #9 in team batting average. They also have a good ranking in stolen bases, ranking #6 in the league. The Astros have a solid offense as well, ranking #7 in MLB and #14 in team batting average. Both teams have a good chance to put runs on the board.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs have an average implied team total of 3.81 runs, while the Astros have an average implied team total of 4.19 runs. THE BAT X projects the Cubs to score 3.55 runs on average in this game, while the Astros are projected to score 4.33 runs.

Considering the projections, the Cubs are seen as underdogs with a projected win probability of 44% according to THE BAT X. However, betting markets view this as a close game, with the Cubs having a moneyline of +110 and the Astros at -130.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 6.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Javier Assad will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Altuve in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad's four-seam fastball utilization has increased by 5% from last year to this one (20.1% to 25.1%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Mike Tauchman may have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago Cubs have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, Miguel Amaya, Pete Crow-Armstrong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 51 away games (+19.35 Units / 28% ROI)

Astros vs Cubs Prediction: Astros 4.39 - Cubs 3.52

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