Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 8/10/2024

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Josh Winckowski - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On August 10, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Houston Astros in what is shaping up to be a competitive matchup at Fenway Park. With both teams enjoying above-average seasons—Boston sitting at 61-53 and Houston at 60-55—this American League clash carries significance for both sides. The Red Sox's potent offense ranks 2nd in MLB, while the Astros are positioned 11th, both teams showcasing strong batting averages, but Boston's offensive prowess could be a decisive factor.

In their last game, Houston defeated the Red Sox on Friday. The Red Sox will send right-hander Josh Winckowski to the mound, who has a respectable 3.44 ERA, though his xFIP of 4.49 suggests he might be due for some regression. Winckowski's low strikeout rate of 16.7% may be concerning, particularly against a low-strikeout Astros lineup that has trouble capitalizing on pitchers like him.

On the other hand, Houston will counter with Spencer Arrighetti, a pitcher who has struggled this season, posting a 5.33 ERA and a troubling 4.21 xFIP. Arrighetti's high strikeout rate of 26.4% could present challenges for the Red Sox's lineup, which ranks 4th in strikeouts, but his projections suggest he might allow a substantial number of earned runs and hits.

Given the projections from the leading MLB projection system, Boston is expected to score an impressive 5.43 runs on average, while Houston is projected to bring in 5.20 runs. The high Game Total of 10.5 runs indicates that fans should anticipate an entertaining and high-scoring affair. With a moneyline of -120 for the Red Sox, betting markets believe this will be a close contest, but the Red Sox's strong offensive stats and advantageous matchups could give them the edge in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti has averaged 14.7 outs per start this year, placing in the 13th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jeremy Pena's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 87.9-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 81.9-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen grades out as the 7th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Josh Winckowski will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing hitters in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Connor Wong has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .298 BA is quite a bit higher than his .246 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 59 games (+19.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 101 games (+12.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 39 games (+15.05 Units / 29% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.26 vs Boston Red Sox 5.46

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