Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles Best Bet – 8/22/2024

• Date: August 22, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Houston Astros on August 22, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the playoff race. The Orioles currently hold a record of 74-54, showcasing a strong season that has them firmly in contention for a postseason berth. Meanwhile, the Astros, with a record of 68-58, find themselves battling to stay relevant as their division title hopes dwindle.

In their last outing, the Orioles lost to the New York Mets, while the Astros are coming off of a loss to the Boston Red Sox. Tonight's matchup marks the first game of the series between these two teams, adding a layer of excitement and anticipation.

On the mound, the Orioles will send Corbin Burnes, who boasts a 12-5 record and a solid 3.10 ERA this season. Although he ranks 25th among starting pitchers, his performance suggests he has been somewhat lucky given his higher 3.74 SIERA. Burnes is projected to pitch around 6.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, which bodes well against an Astros offense that ranks 11th in MLB.

Conversely, the Astros will counter with Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled this season with a 5.20 ERA and a 5-11 record. Arrighetti's projections indicate he may only pitch about 4.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and his high walk rate could give the potent Orioles lineup additional opportunities to capitalize.

With the Orioles ranked 2nd in overall offense and leading the league in home runs, their power could be a decisive factor against Arrighetti’s flyball tendencies. Betting lines favor the Orioles with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their strong standing and home-field advantage. As the game total sits at 8.5 runs, fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching how this pivotal matchup unfolds.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

With 7 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Spencer Arrighetti will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the past week, Yordan Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Ramon Urias has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.8-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 87.9-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 85 games (+16.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 125 games (+17.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ramon Urias has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+21.50 Units / 239% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.1 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.96

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