Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 5/16/2025

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on May 16, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the American League. The Blue Jays, currently sitting at 21-22, are having an average season and are looking to turn things around. In contrast, the Tigers boast an impressive 29-15 record, reflecting their strong performance this year.

In their last outing, the Blue Jays struggled, giving up significant runs as they fell short against their rivals. With Bowden Francis projected to start, Toronto is looking for a boost from a pitcher currently ranked as the 203rd best among starting pitchers, according to advanced stats. While Francis has struggled with a 5.40 ERA, his 4.58 xFIP suggests he could perform better, given some luck. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs with a low strikeout rate of 4.8 per game. This could present an opportunity against a high-strikeout Tigers offense.

Jack Flaherty takes the mound for Detroit, sporting an average 4.61 ERA this season. Ranked as the 66th best pitcher, he’s shown potential to outperform his current metrics, with a 3.32 xFIP indicating he might have been unlucky. Flaherty's ability to strike out 5.3 batters per game could be crucial against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks among the least strikeout-prone teams in MLB.

The Tigers' offense, ranked 6th overall with a .277 batting average, is significantly stronger than the Blue Jays’ 15th-ranked unit. As the game total sits at an average 8.5 runs, this matchup appears to favor Detroit, but the Blue Jays' strong bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, could keep things interesting late in the game. With a projected team total of 4.05 runs for Toronto and 4.45 for Detroit, bettors may want to consider Toronto's potential value as they look to even the series.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty's fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this year (92.2 mph) below where it was last year (93.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Javier Baez has been hot in recent games, bashing 5 dingers in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Trey Sweeney hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Typically, bats like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jack Flaherty.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy set of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+9.75 Units / 47% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.05, Toronto Blue Jays 4.85

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

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