Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 5/18/2025

On May 18, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Detroit Tigers at Rogers Centre in what is shaping up to be a competitive matchup. The Blue Jays are currently sitting at 22-23 this season, while the Tigers boast a strong 30-16 record, positioning them as one of the top teams in the league. In their last game, the Tigers fell short against the Blue Jays, which could add some extra motivation for Detroit to bounce back in this series.

Jose Berrios is projected to take the mound for the Blue Jays. Although he has a modest 1-1 record with a 4.33 ERA this year, advanced stats suggest he has been somewhat fortunate, as his 4.87 FIP indicates he may face challenges moving forward. Berrios projects to pitch about 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs. However, his potential to allow 5.8 hits and 1.5 walks could be concerning against a potent Tigers offense.

Jackson Jobe, the starter for the Tigers, has had a rocky season thus far, being labeled one of the worst pitchers in MLB by the Power Rankings. With a 3-0 record and a 4.32 ERA, he too has faced some luck, as his 5.11 xFIP suggests he may struggle against the Blue Jays' lineup, which ranks 15th in MLB offensively.

The projections indicate a close game, with the Blue Jays holding an implied team total of 4.35 runs compared to the Tigers' 4.15 runs. Given the Blue Jays' solid bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, Toronto may have the edge they need to secure a victory in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jackson Jobe is an extreme flyball pitcher (35% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kerry Carpenter has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 96.7-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

This season, Jose Berrios has added a new pitch to his arsenal (a slider), throwing it on 27.7% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Typically, bats like Daulton Varsho who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jackson Jobe.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games (+12.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+8.15 Units / 49% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.7, Toronto Blue Jays 4.95

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jackson Jobe - Tigers
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

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