Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 5/17/2025

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Detroit Tigers on May 17, 2025, in what shapes up to be an interesting matchup at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays come into this game having lost a tight contest against the Tigers the previous day by a score of 5-4. With a record of 21-23, the Blue Jays are struggling this season, particularly in hitting for power, ranking 24th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Tigers are in excellent form, boasting a record of 30-15, making them one of the top teams in the league.

For this game, Toronto will send Eric Lauer to the mound, who has struggled with consistency despite a decent ERA of 2.00. However, advanced projections indicate he may be due for a regression, as his xFIP sits at 4.04, signaling some potential luck in his performances. Lauer's high strikeout rate (28.1 K%) could work in his favor against a Tigers offense that has the 5th most strikeouts in the league.

Opposing him is Detroit’s Reese Olson, who is having a strong season with an ERA of 3.38. Olson's ability to handle his recent challenges is important, especially after allowing three earned runs in his last start on May 11. While he has demonstrated solid pitching, the projections suggest he may also face difficulties, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs today.

The Tigers' offensive strength cannot be understated; they rank 5th in MLB in batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays' offense is deemed average, which could be challenged by the strong performances from Detroit’s bullpen, currently rated the best in MLB.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, and the odds favoring the Tigers as the betting favorites, the Blue Jays will look to capitalize on Lauer’s strikeout ability to turn the tide in their favor and snap their losing streak.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson has relied on his sinker 11.1% more often this season (31.3%) than he did last year (20.2%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball batters like Javier Baez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Urena.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Trey Sweeney hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Eric Lauer performed well in his last game started and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

The Barrel% of George Springer has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.3% last year to 18.4% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone team of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• Ernie Clement has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 32% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.49, Toronto Blue Jays 4.28

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Eric Lauer - Blue Jays

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