Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 3, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

On June 3, 2024, the Texas Rangers will take on the Detroit Tigers in an American League matchup at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, with a season record of 29-30, are having an average season, as are the Tigers, who also hold a record of 29-30. The game is the first in a series between these two teams.

The Rangers will be the home team, looking to capitalize on their offensive prowess. They rank 13th in MLB in terms of overall offense and have the second-best team batting average and fifth-most home runs in the league. However, their stolen bases rank 25th, indicating a weakness in that aspect of their game.

The Tigers, on the other hand, have struggled offensively this season, ranking 21st overall. They have the 27th team batting average and rank poorly in both home runs and stolen bases. However, their bullpen is considered average, ranking 16th in MLB.

The starting pitchers for this game will be Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers and Tarik Skubal for the Tigers. Eovaldi, a right-handed pitcher, has had a solid season with a 2-2 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 2.84. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

Skubal, a left-handed pitcher, has been outstanding this season, boasting a 7-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.01. His xFIP also indicates that he has been performing at an elite level. However, like Eovaldi, Skubal's xFIP suggests that he may not be able to maintain his current level of success.

In terms of offensive performance over the last week, Corey Seager has been the Rangers' standout hitter. He has recorded seven hits, four runs, five RBIs, and two home runs, with a batting average of .368 and an OPS of 1.244. Matt Vierling has been the Tigers' top hitter, with ten hits, seven runs, five RBIs, and two home runs, and a batting average of .385 and an OPS of 1.138.

Based on projections, the Rangers are favored to win this game, with a 51% win probability according to THE BAT X. The Tigers have a 49% win probability. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Generating 18.3 outs per start this year on average, Tarik Skubal ranks in the 93rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Akil Baddoo has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Detroit's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #24 team in the game since the start of last season by this standard.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary offerings a lot this year: 64.6% of the time, checking in at the 90th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.3) implies that Robbie Grossman has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 11.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Corey Seager hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.45 Units / 50% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+19.50 Units / 279% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.8 vs Texas Rangers 3.63

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