Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/22/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Zack Littell - Rays
• Run Line: Tigers -1.5 155, Rays 1.5 -175
• Money Line: Tigers -110, Rays -110
• Total (Over/Under):7 -120

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 50%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 49.84%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 50.16%

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Preview & Prediction

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to face off against the Detroit Tigers in an American League matchup scheduled for April 22, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, with a season record of 12-11, are having an above-average season, while the Tigers hold a record of 12-10, also above average.

The Rays will have Zack Littell, a right-handed pitcher, as their projected starter, while the Tigers will counter with Tarik Skubal, a left-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Skubal is considered the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite player. On the other hand, Littell ranks 128th, below average among approximately 350 pitchers.

Littell has started four games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an excellent ERA of 2.14. However, his 3.30 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. Skubal has also started four games, boasting a 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.28. Like Littell, Skubal's 2.96 xFIP indicates potential regression in his performance.

The Rays offense ranks as the 23rd best in MLB this season, but they excel in team batting average (ranked 9th), home runs (ranked 4th), and stolen bases (ranked 2nd). The Tigers offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 26th best in MLB, with low rankings in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen rankings, the Rays sit at 17th best in MLB, while the Tigers rank 14th best. Both teams have average bullpen performances according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In the last seven games, Richie Palacios has been the Rays' best hitter, recording six hits, seven runs, one home run, and a batting average of .375 with a 1.161 OPS. For the Tigers, Kerry Carpenter holds the title of best hitter over the last week, with 11 hits, eight RBIs, one home run, a .379 batting average, and a 1.109 OPS.

Skubal, a high-groundball pitcher, will face a powerful Rays offense known for their home runs (173 this season, 4th most in MLB). However, Skubal's ability to induce groundballs may limit the Rays' ability to capitalize on their away-run power.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, betting markets expect a close game between the Rays and Tigers. The Rays and Tigers both have an implied win probability of 50%, making this matchup highly anticipated by sports bettors.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Tarik Skubal is expected to wring up 6.4 strikeouts in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Harold Ramirez as the 12th-best batter in the game when assessing his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games at home (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 55 away games (+14.67 Units / 24% ROI)
• Tarik Skubal has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)

Tigers vs Rays Prediction: Tigers 4.03 - Rays 3.8

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.