Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 6/22/2025

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Detroit Tigers at George M. Steinbrenner Field on June 22, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two competitive teams. The Rays currently sit at 43-34, solidifying their position in the race for a Wild Card spot, while the Tigers boast a strong record of 48-30, highlighting their exceptional season.

Zack Littell is projected to take the mound for the Rays, with a Win/Loss record of 6-7 this season and an ERA of 3.88, which is solid despite his ranking as the 159th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, advanced projections suggest he may face challenges against the Tigers' lineup, which ranks 4th in strikeouts, leaning on Littell’s low strikeout rate.

On the other side, Casey Mize is expected to start for the Tigers. With a record of 7-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.96, Mize ranks as an average pitcher but is capable of shutting down offenses. He has faced some luck this season, as indicated by his 3.95 xFIP.

Offensively, the Rays rank 13th overall and excel with a 6th place ranking in team batting average. They’ll need this production against a Tigers offense that ranks 7th overall but struggles significantly with stolen bases, finishing 30th in that category.

Betting markets reflect the tight competition, with both teams at -110 on the moneyline. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair. With both teams having strong pitching and offensive capabilities, this game could very well tip the balance in favor of the Rays, who are keen to bounce back after a tough loss.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Casey Mize's fastball velocity has fallen 1.6 mph this year (93.8 mph) below where it was last season (95.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Colt Keith has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.2-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball bats, Zack Littell and his 36.8% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position today squaring off against 2 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Casey Mize.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tampa Bay grades out as the #28 club in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (14% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 73 games (+12.08 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 104% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.8, Tampa Bay Rays 4.24

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Zack Littell - Rays

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