Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 6/21/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on June 21, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams are looking to capitalize on their current standings. The Rays sit at 42-34, enjoying a solid season but trailing the division-leading Tigers, who boast a record of 48-29 and are having a great year. This matchup is significant as it marks the second game of the series, with the Rays winning the opener.

Ryan Pepiot is set to take the mound for the Rays. Despite a 4-6 record this season, Pepiot has shown flashes of brilliance with a stellar 3.11 ERA, ranking him as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. However, his 3.78 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season, indicating a potential regression. Pepiot is projected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which could be a concern given his tendency to allow 4.7 hits and 1.5 walks.

On the other side, Sawyer Gipson-Long will take the hill for the Tigers. Though he has only started two games this season, his 3.97 ERA is respectable. However, projections indicate that he might be due for improvement, as his 2.09 FIP suggests he has faced some bad luck. Gipson-Long is expected to pitch just 4.1 innings, which puts pressure on the Tigers' bullpen, ranked 2nd best in MLB.

Offensively, the Rays rank 15th overall but excel in batting average (8th) and have the top stolen base rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Tigers' offense is ranked 6th, showcasing their power with a 9th place ranking in home runs. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, signaling an expectation for a competitive contest.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Given that groundball batters hold a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Sawyer Gipson-Long and his 32.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position in today's matchup matching up with 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Over the past two weeks, Zach McKinstry's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (54.4% compared to 49.4% last year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jose Caballero's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 85.1-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 75.5-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Caballero, Kameron Misner, Josh Lowe).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.68 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 77 games (+12.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.59, Tampa Bay Rays 4.66

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sawyer Gipson-Long - Tigers
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

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