Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 6/20/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on June 20, 2025, both teams are vying for a critical edge in the American League standings. The Rays sit at 41-34, showcasing an above-average season, while the Tigers lead with a strong 48-28 record. This matchup marks the beginning of a series that could impact the postseason landscape.

Shane Baz is projected to take the mound today for Tampa. Baz, who has started 14 games this year, holds a 6-3 record and an average ERA of 4.54. Despite this, his 3.99 xERA indicates he has faced some bad luck, suggesting he could improve moving forward. He is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, although his projections indicate he may struggle with hits and walks, allowing 4.9 hits and 1.7 walks per game—both metrics are concerning.

On the other side, Jack Flaherty will take the hill for the Tigers. With a 5-7 record and an ERA of 4.03, Flaherty ranks 63rd among MLB starters, suggesting he has been slightly more effective than his numbers indicate. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs while striking out 6.3 batters, showcasing a solid ability to miss bats.

The Rays' offense ranks 15th overall, with a particularly strong batting average of 7th in the league. Conversely, the Tigers boast the 8th best offense, but their struggles on the base paths have been evident, ranking dead last in stolen bases. This game is projected to be close, with both teams having an implied total of 4.25 runs, making it an intriguing matchup for bettors and fans alike.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty has relied on his slider 5.9% less often this season (23.1%) than he did last season (29%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Colt Keith has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Detroit Tigers have been the luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz's 96.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 90th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Yandy Diaz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Flaherty.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 7.5% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #26 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 games (+11.68 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 59 games (+11.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.59, Tampa Bay Rays 4.48

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Shane Baz - Rays

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