Detroit Tigers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 5/19/2025

On May 19, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Detroit Tigers at Busch Stadium in an interleague matchup that promises to be intriguing. The Cardinals, currently holding a record of 26-21, are having a solid season, but they recently dropped a close game against the Royals, losing 2-1 on May 18. Meanwhile, the Tigers are riding high with a record of 31-16, having won their last game against the Blue Jays by a score of 3-2.

Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals. Despite a rough outing in his last start where he allowed 7 earned runs over 4 innings on May 14, he has been one of the more reliable pitchers for St. Louis this season, boasting a 4-1 record and ranking as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Gray also has a favorable projection for today's game, expected to pitch 5.6 innings with 2.4 earned runs, which bodes well for the Cardinals.

On the other hand, Keider Montero is slated to start for the Tigers. Unfortunately for Detroit, Montero has struggled, currently ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB. His last performance saw him leave the game after just 3 innings, giving up 3 earned runs, which adds to his 1-1 record and 4.68 ERA this season.

From an offensive perspective, the Cardinals rank 9th in MLB, with a particularly strong showing in batting average at 4th overall. The Tigers also have a strong offense, ranked 5th overall. However, the projections suggest that the Cardinals will have a higher implied team total of 4.66 runs compared to the Tigers' 3.84.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Keider Montero's 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.7-mph decline from last season's 94.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The Detroit Tigers project to score the 2nd-least runs of all teams on the slate, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 15 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.95 Units / 20% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.25, St. Louis Cardinals 5.03

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

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